ICAO Warns: Aviation is growing fast, the next battle Is about capacity, workers and money

The International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO, is putting a difficult reality before governments: global aviation is growing faster than much of the infrastructure needed to support it. For the first time since 2013, ICAO will convene its Worldwide Air Transport Conference, ATConf/7, from November 16 to 20, 2026, in Montreal. Governments, aviation authorities, financial institutions and industry representatives will discuss how the world finances and manages the next stage of air transport, including airports, air navigation systems, workforce development, regulation, technology and cleaner aviation.

The 13-year gap between conferences is important because aviation today bears little resemblance to the industry governments were discussing in 2013. The sector has endured a pandemic, rapid digitalization, changing airline business models, supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts and growing demands to reduce carbon emissions. ICAO itself says these changes have exposed weaknesses in the system and created a need to rethink parts of the global economic framework governing aviation. Its message is fairly straightforward: if the world expects more people to fly, more countries to be connected and aviation to move toward net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, governments and the private sector will have to invest much more money, and do it quickly.

The numbers explain the urgency

Global passenger demand is not expected to stand still. A joint Airports Council International World and ICAO outlook projected passenger traffic reaching approximately 19.5 billion passengers by 2042, roughly twice the 2024 level. That means the aviation system has to prepare for billions of additional passenger journeys while many airports are already dealing with congestion, aging facilities, limited gates, stretched airspace and shortages of specialized workers.

Industry estimates cited ahead of the conference put the airport infrastructure requirement at roughly US$2.6 trillion through 2040. Aviation is also expected to support around US$8.5 trillion in global economic activity and 135 million jobs in the early 2040s. The potential economic cost of failing to expand capacity has been estimated in the tens of trillions of dollars because inadequate connectivity eventually limits tourism, trade, investment and economic activity. The problem, however, is bigger than simply building terminals and adding runways.

A new terminal does not solve everything

Airport infrastructure is the most visible part of aviation, but it is only one part of the system. Aircraft need runways, taxiways and gates, but airports also require modern air traffic control, navigation and surveillance systems, baggage systems, security technology, reliable electricity, communications networks, ground handling equipment, fuel infrastructure and trained employees. An airport may look modern to passengers while still struggling behind the scenes with outdated systems or limited operational capacity.

The surrounding country matters too. An airport capable of processing millions of passengers can still become inefficient if roads leading to it cannot handle traffic or if immigration, customs and security become bottlenecks. ICAO's conference agenda reflects this broader approach, with governments expected to discuss not only physical infrastructure but the integration of aviation into national development plans, stable investment environments, new financing mechanisms and partnerships between governments and private capital.

This is an important shift because governments traditionally treated major airports as national infrastructure projects that were largely planned and financed by the state. Increasingly, the amounts required are so large that countries are looking toward public-private partnerships, development banks, pension funds, institutional investors and other forms of long-term financing. But investors want predictable rules, and political instability, sudden changes in airport charges, uncertain regulation and weak governance can make major projects difficult to finance regardless of how badly a country needs them.

The shortage of people could become just as serious

Another constraint cannot be solved with concrete or steel. Aviation needs people, and as the industry expands it will need more pilots, air traffic controllers, engineers, technicians, cybersecurity specialists, safety inspectors, maintenance personnel and increasingly sophisticated technology workers. ICAO has placed workforce development and institutional capacity directly on the ATConf/7 agenda, alongside supply chains, market access and emergency preparedness.

The difficulty is that many of these professions require years of education, certification and experience. A country can approve construction of a terminal today and open it several years later, but producing a new generation of controllers, engineers and aviation specialists requires equally deliberate planning. This creates the real possibility that some countries could build capacity faster than they can develop the people required to operate it, leaving expensive infrastructure under strain from the moment it opens.

The workforce issue also has a competitive element. Larger aviation markets often have deeper training systems, bigger labor pools and greater ability to attract skilled workers from abroad. Smaller states can spend years training specialists only to lose them to larger airports or airlines offering higher salaries and wider career opportunities. For developing states, the challenge is therefore not only producing aviation professionals but retaining them.

Aviation also has a climate bill to pay

At the same time, the industry is being asked to expand while reducing its environmental impact. ICAO's long-term goal is net-zero carbon emissions from international aviation by 2050, and reaching that objective will require far more than airlines simply buying newer aircraft. Sustainable aviation fuel, cleaner energy infrastructure, airport electrification and other technologies all require major investment, while sustainable aviation fuel production remains far below the scale that would be needed to replace conventional jet fuel in any meaningful way.

ICAO established its Finvest Hub specifically to connect aviation sustainability projects with governments, financial institutions and private investors. The initiative gives particular attention to developing countries that may struggle to attract financing for cleaner aviation projects. This matters because the cost of meeting future environmental standards could become another dividing line between wealthy aviation markets and smaller economies that already face difficulty financing basic airport expansion.

The transition could also increase operating costs before new technology becomes cheaper and more widely available. Airlines may face higher fuel costs, airports may have to invest in new energy and ground systems, and governments may be asked to create incentives or financing structures to support the transition. For destinations dependent on affordable airlift, every additional cost eventually raises the question of who pays: airlines, airports, governments or passengers.

Small islands cannot afford a two-speed aviation world

In St. Maarten and much of the Caribbean, aviation is not simply another sector of the economy. It is part of the economic infrastructure on which the country depends, supporting tourism, employment, business travel, education, medical access, family connections and investment. Hotels, restaurants, taxis, retailers and countless other businesses are affected by the strength and reliability of airlift into the destination.

ICAO has specifically told North American, Central American and Caribbean states that their participation in the November conference matters because air transport is essential to connectivity, tourism, trade and development. It has also said that the perspectives of Small Island Developing States should be reflected in the conference's global policy outcomes. For islands, this is important because many aviation policies designed around large markets do not always account for the financial and geographic realities of small destinations.

If major aviation markets have the money to modernize airports, introduce advanced technology, attract skilled personnel and transition toward cleaner fuels while smaller economies struggle to finance the same changes, global aviation could gradually develop into a two-tier system. Large hubs would become more efficient and competitive, while smaller destinations could face higher costs simply to meet evolving standards and expectations. Over time, the gap would not only be about the quality of airport facilities but about which destinations airlines consider most attractive to serve.

Airlines have choices because aircraft are movable assets. Carriers can place them on routes where demand, airport efficiency, operating costs and profitability offer the strongest return. For a tourism-dependent country, maintaining airlift therefore involves much more than marketing beaches and hotels. The airport, border-control process, cost structure, reliability, technology and passenger experience all become part of the destination's competitive position.

This is particularly relevant for smaller Caribbean islands that often depend on a limited number of major source markets. A reduction in frequencies, the loss of a route or a decision by an airline to place aircraft elsewhere can have consequences far beyond the airport terminal. It can affect hotel occupancy, employment, government revenue and the ability of residents to reach major international hubs without additional connections.

Politics may be harder than finding the money

There is another problem even trillions of dollars cannot solve. International aviation depends on governments getting along because aircraft routinely cross several countries' airspace on a single journey and airlines require traffic rights negotiated between states. Routes can be affected by wars, sanctions, diplomatic disputes and closed airspace far from a passenger's final destination, sometimes forcing airlines to fly longer routes that consume more fuel and raise operating costs.

Since the previous worldwide conference, aviation has experienced exactly those types of disruptions. This is why ATConf/7 will also discuss market access, fair competition, consumer protection, taxes and charges, regulation, emergency preparedness, artificial intelligence, digitalization and new aviation technologies. The future of aviation is therefore being shaped as much by government policy and international relationships as by what airports are able to build.

Market liberalization will also remain a sensitive subject. Greater access can create new routes and competition, but governments sometimes seek to protect national airlines, local markets or strategic aviation interests. What may look efficient from a global aviation perspective can look very different to a government concerned about jobs, national connectivity or losing control over an important sector of its economy.

ICAO can establish standards, provide technical guidance and help governments coordinate, but it cannot force countries to invest, liberalize markets, improve regulation or cooperate politically. Those decisions ultimately fall to national governments, which means the success of aviation's next phase will depend heavily on whether political leaders view aviation infrastructure as a long-term economic priority rather than simply another line in an annual budget.

The biggest aviation challenge facing the world may therefore not be whether enough passengers want to fly. The demand appears to be coming. The challenge is whether governments will build, finance, staff and modernize the aviation system quickly enough to accommodate those passengers while keeping travel safe, efficient, affordable and increasingly sustainable.

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