St. Maarten GDP beats earlier forecast, tourism performed better than expected

GREAT BAY--The latest Economic Bulletin of the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten, CBCS, indicates that St. Maarten’s economy recorded solid real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2025, an upward revision from the Bank’s December 2025 projection, as stronger tourism activity and lower inflation provided support to economic expansion. (see previously feature article on the bulletin).

According to the bulletin, the 2025 growth estimate for St. Maarten was revised upward by 0.3 percentage points, largely because tourism arrivals performed better than previously expected, particularly in the cruise segment. Inflation also came in lower than anticipated, easing to 1.6%, which helped preserve purchasing power and support broader economic activity.

The report shows that growth in 2025 was driven by both domestic demand and net foreign demand. On the domestic side, private demand was supported by stronger consumption as inflation remained lower than expected. On the external side, exports outpaced imports, helped by higher foreign exchange earnings from cruise tourism. The Bank also noted that public investment remained below budgeted levels, even as the economy continued to expand.

On the production side, the strongest support for GDP came from accommodation and food services, transport, storage and communication, construction, and wholesale and retail trade. The CBCS said tourism demand, especially cruise-related activity, helped lift several of these sectors, while the construction industry continued to expand through smaller ongoing residential projects even after the completion of major works such as the airport reconstruction.

Looking ahead, the CBCS projects that St. Maarten’s real GDP growth will moderate to 2.7% in 2026. While slower than in 2025, that forecast still points to continued expansion, driven mainly by domestic demand and supported by ongoing commercial and residential projects, as well as continued tourism-related activity.

The Bank’s bulletin also includes several indicators that strengthen the GDP story by showing the wider economic setting around the growth figures. St. Maarten’s current budget moved from balance in 2024 to a surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2025, before a projected slight easing to 0.8% in 2026. At the same time, the public debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 43.0% in 2025 following additional borrowing for public investment, but is projected to edge down to 42.7% in 2026 on the back of higher nominal GDP.

The bulletin also makes clear that the GDP outlook is not without risk. The CBCS warned that higher oil prices and transportation costs linked to tensions in the Middle East are expected to push inflation in St. Maarten up to 1.9% in 2026. In a moderate oil shock scenario, the Bank said St. Maarten’s 2026 GDP growth could fall to 1.4%, while a more severe shock could reduce growth to just 0.6%.

Taken together, the CBCS assessment points to an economy that remained resilient in 2025 and is still expected to grow in 2026, with tourism, private demand, and continuing construction activity remaining central to St. Maarten’s economic performance. At the same time, the report underscores that external shocks, particularly those affecting fuel, freight, and tourism demand, remain an important threat to the island’s growth outlook.

‍

‍