Possible historic El Niño may limit the number hurricanes, but Caribbean told not to relax

GREAT BAY--Scientists are closely monitoring the development of what could become a strong and possibly historic El Niño event, a climate pattern that can influence weather around the world and play an important role in shaping the Atlantic hurricane season.

The latest outlook from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center states that El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82 percent chance between May and July 2026, and a 96 percent chance of continuing through December 2026 to February 2027.

El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than normal. While the warming happens in the Pacific, its effects can spread across the globe by changing wind patterns, rainfall, temperatures and storm behavior.

For the Atlantic and Caribbean, El Niño is important because it often creates conditions that are less favorable for hurricane development. Strong El Niño events tend to increase upper-level winds across parts of the Atlantic Basin and the Caribbean. These winds, known as vertical wind shear, can tear developing storms apart or prevent them from organizing.

Colorado State University’s early 2026 hurricane outlook also points to this possibility, noting that a robust El Niño could dominate tropical conditions during the peak of the Atlantic season and likely drive above-normal wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

This does not mean St. Maarten or the wider Caribbean can let their guard down. El Niño can reduce the overall number of storms in the Atlantic, but it does not eliminate the threat. Even a quieter season can produce a dangerous hurricane if one storm forms in the wrong place and moves toward populated islands.

Forecasters also caution that El Niño is only one factor. Atlantic sea surface temperatures, Saharan dust, moisture levels, steering currents and local atmospheric conditions all help determine how active a hurricane season becomes and where storms may track.

The Weather Channel has also noted that stronger El Niño seasons are generally quieter in the Atlantic, but not always, pointing to 2023 as an example of a season that remained active despite El Niño influence because Atlantic waters were exceptionally warm.

The World Meteorological Organization recently said the likelihood of El Niño has increased and that an event is expected to develop from mid-2026, with possible impacts on global rainfall and temperature patterns.

For residents of St. Maarten and the region, the message remains the same: prepare early and prepare seriously. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and the peak months, August through October, remain the period of greatest concern for the northeastern Caribbean.

Emergency officials continue to urge residents and businesses to review hurricane plans, check roofs and shutters, trim trees, secure important documents, stock emergency supplies and remain alert to official weather updates.

While a developing El Niño may help limit the number of Atlantic storms, it should not create a false sense of security. A less active season is not the same as a safe season. One storm is enough to cause major damage, and preparedness remains the best protection.

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