Population projected to increase 28% on Bonaire, St. Eustatius, Saba by 2035

THE HAGUE--The populations of Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba are all projected to increase between 2026 and 2050, according to a new population forecast released by Statistics Netherlands, CBS.

The combined population of the three islands is expected to rise from approximately 33,200 at the beginning of 2026 to 42,500 by 2035, an increase of 28 percent within nine years. By 2050, the three islands are projected to have a combined population of approximately 48,000.

Bonaire is expected to record the largest increase. Its population is projected to grow from 27,600 in 2026 to 36,600 in 2035, before reaching approximately 41,900 by 2050.

St. Eustatius is forecast to grow from 3,300 residents in 2026 to 3,400 in 2035 and approximately 3,600 by 2050.

Saba’s population is expected to increase from 2,300 in 2026 to approximately 2,500 in 2035. The population is then projected to remain near that level through 2050.

CBS expects population growth across the three islands to gradually slow and come to an end around 2050. The latest projection for that year is more than 4,000 residents higher than the forecast issued in 2025.

Bonaire is projected to grow by 32 percent between 2026 and 2035, while Saba is expected to record growth of 10 percent. St. Eustatius is projected to grow by approximately 3 percent over the same period.

Higher migration drives revised forecast

The upward revision is largely connected to higher-than-expected immigration.

In 2025, Bonaire received 212 more immigrants than previously projected. Saba received 33 more, while St. Eustatius received 39 more than forecast. CBS has therefore revised its migration assumptions, particularly for Bonaire and Saba.

Saba also recorded the arrival of a comparatively large number of migrant workers from Türkiye during the first months of 2026. CBS assumes that this movement is connected to permanent employment and could contribute to sustained migration in the coming years.

The number of immigrants arriving on Bonaire is expected to remain elevated until approximately 2035. Net migration on all three islands is then projected to gradually decline, reaching zero by 2055.

Population becoming more internationally diverse

The composition of the population is also expected to change.

Residents born on Bonaire, St. Eustatius, Saba, Aruba, Curaçao or St. Maarten currently account for approximately 49 percent of the combined population. That proportion is expected to fall to 44 percent by 2035.

Residents born in the European Netherlands currently account for approximately 14 percent, while 36 percent were born elsewhere. The share born outside the Kingdom is projected to rise to 42 percent by 2035, largely because of increased migration to Bonaire.

Ageing population will place additional demands on services

The three islands are also expected to experience continued population ageing.

At the beginning of 2026, approximately 15 percent of residents were aged 65 or older. This is projected to increase to 18 percent by 2035 and 24 percent by 2050.

The projections indicate that population growth will bring increased demand for housing, healthcare, education, infrastructure and other public services. The changing age profile and increased dependence on migration will also be important considerations for long-term labour and social policy planning.

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