New Caribbean resilience index places St. Maarten near bottom, citing climate, sustainability and demographic weaknesses

GREAT BAY--St. Maarten has ranked 16th out of 18 Caribbean countries in the newly released Resilience Index Caribbean, RICa, 2026, a regional study by Amsterdam Bureau for Economics that measures how well Caribbean economies can absorb shocks and adapt to pressures such as economic disruption, climate risk, and geopolitical uncertainty.

The report, published on April 21, says the index compares 18 Caribbean countries using 26 variables across seven categories: economic, fiscal, demographic, financial, geographic, institutional, and sustainability. The authors stress that the index is meant as a relative regional measure, not an absolute or global ranking.

Jamaica ranked first with a score of 15.07, followed closely by Barbados at 15.05 and Belize at 14.34. At the lower end of the ranking were St. Lucia at 11.56, Haiti at 11.47, and St. Maarten at 11.74, placing the country third from the bottom overall. Aruba and Curaçao ranked fifth and sixth, respectively, with scores of 13.84 and 13.39.

According to the report, St. Maarten’s weaker position was driven not by a total collapse across all categories, but by a combination of vulnerabilities that dragged down its overall score. The study says St. Maarten performs somewhat better than Curaçao on economic indicators, but its broader resilience is reduced by weaker demographic, geographic, and sustainability outcomes.

Among the key concerns identified were low labor force participation, high net emigration, exposure to hurricanes, and poor sustainability performance. The report states that St. Maarten has the lowest renewable energy share and the highest CO2 emissions among the 18 countries measured, factors that significantly weakened its final ranking.

The geographic dimension also weighed heavily against the country. Unlike Aruba and Curaçao, which benefit from being outside the hurricane belt, St. Maarten’s location leaves it more exposed to extreme weather and climate-related shocks, reducing its score in a category directly tied to resilience.

The findings present a different picture from St. Maarten’s recent performance in a separate regional benchmark from the same research firm. In its 2024 Caribbean Investment Climate Index, Amsterdam Bureau for Economics ranked St. Maarten second in the region, citing strong economic growth and population dynamics, while also noting that the country lagged in data availability.

That contrast suggests that while St. Maarten may remain attractive in some investment-related areas, the country’s ability to withstand long-term external shocks is being undermined by structural weaknesses that extend beyond headline economic activity. The new resilience index was designed specifically to capture those broader vulnerabilities, including fiscal space, institutional quality, demographic balance, climate exposure, and sustainability performance.

The report also notes that practical data limitations remain a challenge across the Caribbean. For St. Maarten specifically, some data points were unavailable and excluded, including the Gini coefficient and trading partner concentration, while the rule-of-law indicator was assumed to be equal to Aruba’s because Aruba, Curaçao, St. Maarten, Bonaire, Saba, and St. Eustatius share a joint Court of Justice.

In presenting the index, Amsterdam Bureau for Economics said Caribbean countries are especially vulnerable because of their openness, tourism dependence, import dependence, and exposure to climate change. For St. Maarten, the report suggests that building resilience will require more than short-term growth; it will also require progress in labor participation, sustainability, and the country’s ability to better withstand external shocks.

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