CBCS: St. Maarten economy still growing, but higher fuel and electricity prices will hit households

GREAT BAY--St. Maarten’s economy is expected to keep growing in 2026, but many households may still feel financial pressure because of higher fuel and electricity prices, according to the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en St. Maarten (CBCS).

In its June 2026 Economic Bulletin, CBCS projects that St. Maarten’s economy will grow by 2.6 percent in 2026. That is still positive growth, but it is slower than the 3.5 percent growth recorded in 2025.

At the same time, CBCS expects inflation to increase from 0.9 percent in 2025 to 2.1 percent in 2026. In simple terms, that means the cost of goods and services is expected to rise faster this year than last year.

The main pressure comes from higher international oil prices and higher transportation costs. These increases are linked to global tensions, especially the conflict in the Middle East.

For St. Maarten, higher oil prices matter because they affect fuel prices, electricity costs, transportation costs and the cost of imported goods. When those costs rise, households have less money left to spend on other needs.

CBCS specifically warns that private consumption, meaning spending by households and individuals, is likely to be limited by higher fuel and electricity prices. In practical terms, this means that even though the economy is growing, families may still feel squeezed.

The report shows that tourism remains one of St. Maarten’s strongest economic drivers. CBCS expects growth in both stay-over tourism and cruise tourism, and says tourism-related earnings will continue to support the economy.

The bank also notes that the effect of the Middle East conflict on tourism has so far been less serious than first expected. In other words, people are still traveling to St. Maarten, and tourism continues to help keep the economy moving.

Still, CBCS makes clear that strong tourism does not automatically mean that households will feel relief. If fuel, electricity and other prices rise, people may have to spend more on basic needs and reduce spending elsewhere.

Domestic demand is expected to remain the main driver of growth in 2026. This includes spending and investment within St. Maarten. CBCS says this will be supported by higher public consumption, public investment and ongoing private investment in residential projects.

Government spending is expected to increase partly because of higher wages and salaries, including the filling of vacancies. Public investment is also expected to increase because some government projects planned for 2025 are now expected to move forward in 2026.

Private investment is also expected to continue, especially in residential development. However, household spending is expected to be held back because people will have to deal with higher fuel and electricity prices.

CBCS says the sectors expected to support growth in 2026 include transport, storage and communication, as well as accommodation and food service activities. These sectors are closely tied to the tourism industry.

The labor market is also expected to improve. CBCS projects that St. Maarten’s unemployment rate will drop to 7.3 percent in 2026.

Government finances are also expected to improve. CBCS projects that St. Maarten’s current budget surplus will rise from 0.7 percent of GDP in 2025 to 1.1 percent in 2026.

This means government is expected to collect more in regular income than it spends on regular expenses. CBCS says government revenues are expected to increase by 4.7 percent, while expenditures are expected to rise by 2.1 percent.

The higher revenue is expected mainly from wage tax, turnover tax and profit tax, supported by economic activity and continued efforts to improve tax collection under the Country Package.

Government expenses are expected to rise because of spending on goods and services, wages and salaries, and government transfers. Wages and salaries are expected to increase because of a 2.5 percent salary indexation and an increase in holiday allowance.

CBCS also projects that St. Maarten’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to improve. The debt ratio is expected to decline from 40.7 percent in 2025 to 39.7 percent in 2026, and continue falling to 37.0 percent by 2030.

Looking ahead, CBCS expects economic growth to slow further to 2.2 percent in 2027 and 1.9 percent by 2030. Inflation is expected to remain at 2.1 percent in 2027 before gradually easing to about 1.9 percent by 2030.

The main message from the CBCS report is that St. Maarten is not in economic decline. The economy is still growing, tourism remains strong, unemployment is expected to improve, and government finances are projected to strengthen.

But for the average household, the story may feel different. Higher fuel and electricity prices are expected to reduce purchasing power, meaning people may have less money available after paying for basic needs.

In short, the economy may grow, but many families could still feel the pressure.

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