857,000 arrivals reported for 2025, Roseburg says to IPKO, would be a record by far

ORANJESTAD, Aruba--Member of Parliament Sjamira Roseburg, Chairperson of the Committee of Kingdom Affairs and Interparliamentary Relations, told the Interparliamentary Kingdom Consultations (IPKO) on Thursday that St. Maarten recorded approximately 857,000 visitors in 2025, a figure that would represent a dramatic jump from the prior year and, if confirmed in detail, a record level of arrivals for the destination.

Roseburg’s disclosure immediately raised questions among observers because St. Maarten’s annual visitor arrivals have historically been far lower, with tourism totals often discussed in the range of roughly half a million per year. Publicly shared air arrival data for January through December 2024 placed air arrivals at 473,132, which underscores how unusual a leap to 857,000 would be within a single year.

Roseburg did not provide a breakdown during her presentation, but the figure is understood and confirmed to have been drawn from government data provided to the MP/Parliament in preparation for IPKO. And data that relies on a newer immigration data processing system introduced by Immigration and Border Protection Services (IBPS) in November 2024, developed in cooperation with Princess Juliana International Airport (PJIAE) and the Department of Statistics.

In November 2024, IBPS introduced an upgraded immigration data processing system in partnership with PJIAE and the Department of Statistics to improve stay-over arrival data accuracy by reducing manual entry and enhancing automated classification. Government information indicates that 2025 is being used as a new baseline year for future comparisons. For transitional context, an adjusted 2024 estimate was produced using airport arrival figures reduced by 10 percent to account for resident travel, while noting that PJIAE figures historically have not been the primary source for visitor arrival data because they do not distinguish residents from non-residents.

The upgraded IBPS system is intended to modernize arrival processing and improve the accuracy of stay-over arrival records by reducing manual data entry and automatically generating traveler classifications in a more consistent way. Government background information indicates that 2025 is being treated as a new baseline year for air arrival reporting going forward, given the methodology change.

During the transition, authorities have indicated that direct year-over-year comparisons may be difficult. As an interim approach for context, the Department of Statistics used adjusted 2024 airport arrival figures, applying a 10 percent reduction to account for resident travel, as a proxy benchmark while the newer 2025 data set already excludes residents.

While the government has not yet issued a full public explanation of what is captured within the 857,000 figure, several factors have been cited by stakeholders as possible contributors that should be tested through a transparent breakdown.

These include increased efficiency in arrival processing at PJIA, including expanded use of automated processes such as eGates, along with changes in how arrivals are classified and recorded under the new IBPS system. Tourism behavior may also be shifting, with growing social media visibility for St. Maarten and a noticeable surge in influencer-driven travel trends across TikTok and Instagram, including coordinated group trips.

At the same time, tourism and hospitality operators have reported strong performance signals on the ground. Multiple hotel properties have indicated, in separate feedback shared with The People’s Tribune, that they recorded occupancy levels exceeding 90 percent during peak periods, which, while not a substitute for arrival statistics, adds to the urgency of providing a detailed public accounting of the numbers.

Employer Council concerns, and why 2025 could reopen the debate

The arrival claims also land in the context of a data credibility debate that emerged in 2025, when the Employer Council of St. Maarten argued that tourism-related figures, and by extension certain economic indicators, may be overstated due to how arrivals and tourism spending are counted in a dual-jurisdiction destination that shares one airport.

In that presentation, the Employer Council cautioned that methods used in single-jurisdiction islands can become unreliable in St. Maarten’s case because many passengers landing at PJIA do not necessarily stay on the Dutch side, with movements that include transit travelers and visitors destined for the French side. The council pointed to occupancy and spending checks as a way to test whether published arrival totals align with real-world capacity and verified expenditure patterns.

With the rollout of a more advanced immigration data system, and with reported high occupancy across parts of the sector, the 2025 figure cited at IPKO now puts renewed focus on the underlying measurement approach, including what categories are included in the total, and how the system distinguishes residents, transit passengers, French-side stays, and Dutch-side stays.

Given the scale of the increase, government would more than likely have to explain the 857,000 figure, including:

• what the total represents, for example stay-over only, total non-resident air arrivals, or a broader visitor definition
• how residents are excluded, and how transit passengers are handled
• how classifications are generated under the new IBPS system
• how the 2024 proxy comparison was constructed, and what its limitations are
• how the methodology accounts for St. Maarten’s dual-jurisdiction reality and shared airport gateway

Roseburg’s disclosure at IPKO has placed an exceptional headline number into the public domain. The next step is ensuring that the public, the private sector, and policymakers all have the same clarity on what is being counted, what has changed in the system, and what the figures mean for tourism planning, labor needs, infrastructure, and national budgeting.

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